For years, buying a home in Canada came with an unspoken promise: Even if the process felt stressful, the investment itself would pay off. That assumption is now disappearing.

With condo investors exiting major markets like Toronto (some selling at a loss), and with sales expected to remain below historical averages, the idea that real estate is a guaranteed win has begun to fade, a shift that will change how people make decisions in 2026.

This isn’t a bad thing, but it does mean buyers will need a different kind of support than in the past.

Even as the market stabilizes, confidence is not recovering at the same pace. Forecasts suggest we’ll see modest sales growth in 2026, but not the kind of surge that tends to follow the major rate-cut cycles we’ve seen in 2025. People are cautious, not because they can’t do the math, but because they’re unsure whether they understand the risks clearly enough to move forward.

That tension was clear in Ownright’s latest survey of Ontario homebuyers: 97 per cent felt at least somewhat financially ready when they purchased, but that readiness evaporated once paperwork began. Nearly half said mortgage terms were the most confusing part of the process, and more than a third experienced moderate to significant financial stress tied to unclear or unexpected costs. 

Buyers weren’t blindsided by the price of the home. They were blindsided by the process.

This is the real story heading into 2026: affordability matters, but confidence is what moves the market, and confidence depends on clarity, something buyers aren’t consistently getting enough of.

The value of a home is becoming emotional, not just financial

With investors stepping back and returns no longer guaranteed, buyers are now weighing what they gain from that decision other than appreciation. Stability, autonomy and long-term security are becoming just as important as price per square foot.

That puts the onus on professionals like Realtors, lawyers, lenders and developers to communicate differently. When a home is no longer sold based on inevitable value growth, it must be sold on the clarity of the journey. For example, what buyers are signing, what they can expect and what the next five years might look like.

Buyers want the truth in plain language instead of abstract reassurances that the price will probably go up over time. They want the full picture of costs, like adjustments, fees and deposit timelines, long before closing day.

They want guidance that helps them fully understand the risk, since most people now don’t see housing as a guaranteed appreciative asset. 

Without this clarity, people may turn to unreliable sources. Our survey noted that 39 per cent of buyers rely primarily on online sources to navigate financial information during closing, even though lawyers remain their most trusted source. That gap between where people look and whom they trust tells us clarity isn’t arriving when it’s needed most.

The market is shifting, so is the mindset

2026 is shaping up to be a transitional year, not a breakout one.

TD’s latest outlook paints a picture of slow but steady recovery: modest sales growth, modest price gains and a market slowly finding its balance again.

But modest doesn’t mean easy. Alongside this recovery, a historic wave of mortgage renewals will bring new pressure on households, reinforcing an environment where buyers remain extremely sensitive to uncertainty.

2026 won’t be defined by affordability alone. It will be defined by how confident people feel navigating the most complex transaction of their lives.

For professionals, prioritizing clarity and accountability will make all the difference. 

What buyers will need in 2026

The needs emerging from the survey were strikingly consistent. Buyers want:

• Clearer explanations of the fine print. Our survey found 46 per cent of homeowners considered mortgage terms the most confusing part of the process;
• Transparency around closing costs. Thirty-seven per cent experienced financial stress tied to unclear or unexpected charges;
• Earlier and more accessible guidance. Only 25 per cent learned about financial aspects directly from their lawyer during closing, even though lawyers are their most trusted source.

These may seem like obvious requests to real estate professionals, but the fact a large swath of people feel confused about one of the biggest purchases of their lives is alarming. 

AI tools will play a role in filling an information gap. Buyers are already using them to compare neighbourhood prices, model affordability scenarios and break down documents they don’t fully understand.

But AI, at its best, is an amplifier rather than a substitute. It can help buyers ask better questions, but it cannot tell them what a decision means for them personally. Professionals still need to close that loop.

The real opportunity is to combine both the accessibility of digital tools with the judgment and clarity of human expertise. That pairing will matter more than ever in a market where confidence comes from understanding, not assumption.

Looking ahead

In 2026, the biggest shift in real estate won’t be financial. It will be psychological.

With guarantees gone, buyers aren’t looking for certainty in the market. They’re looking for certainty in the process.

They want to understand what they’re signing. They want to feel supported before stress sets in and they want to make decisions rooted in clarity, not fear.

Affordability will shape the numbers. Clarity will shape the behaviour.

Behaviour is what ultimately moves the market.