Home prices in the expensive Greater Toronto and Vancouver markets ticked down, as they rose in Quebec, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, according to Royal LePage's Q1 2025 national housing market report.

Billed as “a tale of two markets”, worries over trade and an upcoming federal election are being felt the strongest in the Greater Toronto and Vancouver Areas, while the markets of Quebec, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are staying active because of low inventories and pent-up demand.

The Toronto-headquartered real estate franchiser reports the aggregate home price in the Greater Toronto Area fell 2.7 per cent year-over-year to $1.1 million; in Greater Vancouver it inched down 0.7 per cent year-over-year to $1.2 million.

Contrast that to year-over-year increases of a whopping 17 per cent to $429,200 in Quebec City, 7.9 per cent to $625,000 in Montreal, 8.3 per cent in Edmonton to $478,800 and 1.9 per cent in Halifax to $517,600.

The aggregate home price nationwide rose 2.1 per cent year-over-year to $829,400, and 1.2 per cent from Q4 2024.

The findings show “there is a lot of hesitancy surrounding the conflict with the U.S.,” Anne-Elise Cugliari Allegritti, the director of research and communications for Royal LePage, said in an interview with RENX Homes.

How buyer confidence is affecting markets

As economic and political concerns weigh heavily on many Canadians, Royal LePage surveyed them on their confidence in the economy. Just under half (49 per cent) voiced some degree of confidence, while 43 per cent said they were not confident.

Quebecers were the most confident — 70 per cent in Montreal and 66 per cent in Quebec City — while 52 per cent of Calgarians and Edmontonians voiced they were “not confident”, followed by Vancouverites at 50 per cent.

The results did not come as a surprise to Royal LePage. Quebecers have historically been the most optimistic about the economy compared to the rest of Canada, Cugliari Allegritti said. 

Though Calgarians and Edmontonians are most concerned about economic prospects, their housing markets remain hot because of relatively low prices and other factors. In Edmonton for example, buyers from Calgary are moving to the city to seek more affordable housing, so the supply remains tight.

“That is to say, if the situation with the U.S. were not a factor at the moment,” Cugliari Allegritti said, “we could have seen prices go up even further in a market like Edmonton where supply is just so low.”

The national median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.8 per cent from the year prior to $868,700. For a condo, the median price inched up one per cent to $598,000.

But the condo market remains slow, particularly in downtown Toronto, Cugliari Allegritti said, leaving abundant supply on the market. On the other hand, single-family housing in every market remains the most desired type of home, with not enough new construction to satisfy demand.

How tariffs are impacting buying intent

Seventeen per cent of people surveyed planned to buy a home this year. Of those respondents, 47 per cent said they had postponed their plans and 53 per cent have not changed course. 

Of those who have delayed their purchase plans, 37 per cent are concerned about a potential increase to the cost of living, 30 per cent are worried about the political and economic uncertainty, and 14 per cent stayed on the sidelines because they expect home prices to decline.

Buyers, Cugliari Allegritti said, are nervous about the potential for things to get worse. However, not all of the U.S. tariff threats are being realized and there are good reasons to buy a home now, including lower interest rates and price stability.

Busy summer, not spring, could happen

The broad trend seen in the Q1 2025 survey, where price growth in Toronto and Vancouver moderates or decreases as it shoots up elsewhere, has become a trend over the past few quarters, according to Cugliari Allegritti.

In Royal LePage’s Q4 2024 report, for example, Toronto and Vancouver’s markets saw aggregate home year-over-year price growth of 2.3 per cent and 0.7 per cent, respectively, while the Greater Montreal Area market rose by 8.2 per cent.

The aggregate national home price is forecast to rise to approximately $860,000 by Q4 2025, a five per cent increase from Q4 2024. Moderate growth in Toronto and Vancouver, with greater price gains in Montreal, Quebec and the Prairies, is expected to be the biggest factor. 

Signs indicate the spring season, traditionally the busiest, could be less active this year, with activity delayed until the summer. Once a new Canadian government is elected in the spring and there is more clarity about the ever-morphing tariffs situation, Cugliari Allegritti expects it will bring back confidence in the real estate market that will be released in the summer.

Demand, she said, “really just moved to the sidelines.”