The Canadian recreational property market is expected to stay on the positive side in 2025, a Royal LePage market report says, despite the downward pressures of economic and political uncertainty.

The Royal LePage 2025 Spring Recreational Property Report, released this morning, forecasts the median price of a single-family home in the country’s recreational market will increase to $652,808 in 2025, up four per cent compared to 2024.

A shortage of supply is the driving factor, Royal LePage’s director of research and communications Anne-Elise Cugliari Allegritti said in an interview with RENX Homes. There are not enough new cottages and cabins being built nationwide to meet buyer demand.

Atlantic Canada and Quebec are expected to be the regional markets with the highest growth this year for single-family homes, predicted to increase by eight per cent to $498,852 and 7.5 per cent to $457,198, respectively.

Though no longer at the “pandemic-era scramble for recreational properties” that led to three years of double-digit price growth during and after the COVID pandemic, the desire for a recreational home remains strong, Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, said in a release. 

The market remains relatively resilient despite the tension from Canada’s trade conflict with the U.S. and the upcoming federal election that has led to some interested buyers taking a wait-and-see approach.

The recreational housing market from 2023 to 2024

Projected growth for 2025 is expected to maintain the general course the market experienced last year.

The weighted median price of a single-family home increased 2.3 per cent year-over-year to $627,700 from 2023 to 2024. Growth was more modest for condos, inching up 0.2 per cent to $431,700 during the same period. But the median price of a single-family waterfront property decreased 3.6 per cent to $1,063,400.

The Atlantic Canada and Quebec markets experienced the highest price growth from 2023 to 2024, followed by Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Alberta and British Columbia recorded small gains, while Ontario saw a slippage in price for both kinds of recreational housing its market offers.

“This report mimics similar trends that we're seeing in the mainstream residential market, where Atlantic Canada and Quebec really corrected sooner and saw greater appreciation last year,” Cugliari Allegritti said. Likewise, home prices in Ontario, B.C. and Alberta faced a slight correction, which is also reflected in the report.

Demand expected to stay steady

The survey of 153 Royal LePage recreational real estate market professionals across Canada, conducted from February to March, found 46 per cent reported similar demand from buyers compared to early 2024. Twenty-four per cent said they were seeing more demand; another 24 per cent said there was less interest.

In 2025, 46 per cent of recreational property experts said they have seen demand increase in their markets due to lower borrowing costs.

Though not as powerful of a force compared to the mainstream housing market, falling interest rates do have an influence on the recreational market, Cugliari Allegritti said. If the prospective buyer was already saving for a vacation home, they can pass on the savings from the reduced mortgage payments on their primary residence toward the purchase.

Recreational housing appeals to a mature, established buyer with a primary residence who is nearing retirement or already retired, Cugliari Allegritti said. Soper noted how the recreational market tends to be more steady, even in economic turbulence, because buyers often have the disposable income or savings.

That rockiness is being felt with the tit-for-tat tariffs between Canada and the U.S. and a federal election scheduled for April 28.

Canadians are lacking confidence in the economy and their politicians, Cugliari Allegritti said, a mood which can affect homebuying activity.

“We know that around an election, we always see a little bit of hesitation or a little bit of a pause in activity, just until we have a little bit more certainty in our own government.”

As more Canadians look to buy Canadian and stay in Canada instead of vacationing south of the border, this could also have implications for the recreational housing market. It is already a trend Cugliari Allegritti is hearing about anecdotally.

“It could certainly put pressure on prices, especially in those markets that are so low on supply, and particularly in the waterfront segment,” she said.

“We'll see an impact on prices for sure if that becomes a real, widespread trend.”