Canada's population growth is slowing, but it’s still far outpacing housing completions, which remains a big challenge for governments, developers and people looking for a place to live.

A May 22 event sponsored by real estate analytics and intelligence provider Zonda Urban at Toronto’s Malaparte, featuring advisory vice-president Jasmine Young and Ontario and Quebec market research VP Pauline Lierman, provided an overview of housing trends and activity.

Median incomes are well below the qualifying annual income needed to buy a house for the median price in Canada’s six largest cities — especially in Toronto and Vancouver, where that price is well over $1 million. 

The closest gap is in Edmonton, where the median income is $97,485, the qualifying income is $109,333 and the median house price is below $500,000.

Mid-rise, wood-frame condominiums are selling well in Western Canada, and Young also cited Jethro in the Vancouver suburb of Langley where over 100 units are available for under $425,000.

“A lot of people are moving to this area because of affordability,” Young said.  

Toronto losing people to other Ontario communities

Townhomes are one of the few housing types selling these days in many markets, but even they’re priced at over $1 million in Vancouver, the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), and Victoria. 

“Sales are happening around $800,000,” Young observed.

Townhomes can still be purchased in Saskatoon, Regina, Edmonton and Winnipeg for under $500,000.

Toronto lost 69,522 people in 2024 to other Ontario markets, as people moved to cities up to two hours away by car. Oshawa’s population grew by 7,971, St. Catharines-Niagara’s by 6,168, Hamilton’s by 4,552, Barrie’s by 3,870, Brantford’s by 3,309, and London’s by 2,903.

Smaller markets, some even farther from Toronto, also experienced significant inter-provincial growth. Kawartha Lakes’ population grew by 1,240, Norfolk’s by 1,225, Chatham-Kent’s by 1,077, North Bay’s by 977, Wasaga Beach’s by 969, and Woodstock’s by 951.

GTHA housing information

Lierman presented specific information about the GTHA, where 733 condominiums and 441 townhomes were sold in Q1. Townhome sales slowed, however, after American president Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs, according to Lierman. 

There were 120 new condo units launched in Q1 with an absorption rate of 20 per cent, while 45 per cent of the 209 townhomes were sold.

“I expect three to four more townhouse sites to come out by the end of the year,” Lierman predicted.

There have been 3,500 condo units and just under 3,000 townhomes sold over the past 12 months. Condo sales dove 68 per cent while townhome sales were down 15 per cent.

There were 3,461 new condo units cancelled last year and 872 have been cancelled in 2025. A further 4,198 units were converted from condo to purpose-built rental since Q3 of 2024, including 1,345 active units and 130 completed units.

Condo unit sales hit 1,174 in Q1 while the unsold inventory was 27,143. There were 441 townhome sales while the unsold inventory was 5,978, but Lierman said only about half of those have been released.

There were 708 standing condo units in projects launched since 2020 that were still in inventory in Q1. If sales don’t pick up, Lierman expects that to hit 2,873 by Q1 2026 as more projects complete.

Lierman said developers are delivering larger units and the Q1 standing inventory was comprised of: two per cent studios; 12 per cent one-bedroom; 24 per cent one-bedroom plus den; 30 per cent two-bedroom; 11 per cent two-bedroom plus den; 10 per cent three-bedroom; three per cent three-bedroom plus den; and seven per cent townhomes.

New GTHA condo projects to decline

Due to the dwindling number of new condo launches, Zonda Urban’s supply forecast is:

• 95 projects with 27,224 units through the remainder of 2025;
• 74 projects with 22,280 units in 2026;
• 52 projects with 16,577 units in 2027;
• 50 projects with 20,205 units in 2027;
• and six projects with 3,674 units in 2028.

It forecasts 10 per cent of condo projects will be in the excavation phase in 2027, while 21 per cent will be in parkade construction, 35 per cent will be in framing and 34 per cent will be in pre-construction.

By 2028-2029, 12 per cent will be in excavation, two per cent will be in parkade construction, 19 per cent will be in framing and 67 per cent will be in pre-construction.

“The feasibility of these at this point is very, very minimal,” Lierman said. “We're dealing with units that are not going to be delivered, or not delivered possibly until 2030 or 2031.”

The supply forecast for townhomes is:

• 74 projects with 5,470 units through the remainder of 2025;
• 36 projects with 2,697 units in 2026;
• four projects with 634 units in 2027;
• and one project with 479 units in 2028.

GTHA purpose-built rentals eclipse condo starts

Purpose-built rental starts eclipsed condo starts in Q1, 2,385 to 1,145. There were 68,775 condo units and 22,195 purpose-built rental units under construction.

Recent condo starts include 720 units at LSQ 1 and 2; 697 at Yonge City Square; and 158 at 2992 Sheppard East. Purpose-built rental apartment starts include: 444 units at Bayview Village North; 584 at 170 Roehampton; 194 at 8 Brownlow; 281 at 403 Keele; 594 at 241 Church; and 149 at 1233 Queen East.

Rents for new purpose-built apartments and condos have been dropping and the rent gap has tightened. The average rent for a new apartment in Q1 was $2,843, compared to $2,504 for a new condo.

“It has narrowed by $127 a month over the last year,” Lierman noted.