The median price of a recreational single-family home in Canada is forecast to increase four per cent this year to $604,552 by Royal LePage, bucking both the broader nationwide housing trend and worries about the economy.

After a 2025 rife with headlines over a trade war and political tensions with the U.S., there are signs more Canadians are trading their condos in Florida for cottages in Muskoka.

In its spring recreational property price forecast, Royal LePage reports 40 per cent of experts report an increase in inquiries from Canadian buyers for recreational homes, driven by a Buy Canadian movement.

At the same time, Canada’s economy is in an unsteady period with Q4 GDP growth being barely above water and weak employment numbers. This is likely to diminish interest in committing to a major property purchase.

“If you look at all those numbers, it says it isn’t in retreat. It’s easing forward but at a slower pace,” Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, said in an interview with RENX Homes.

Supply-demand imbalance

An imbalance between supply and demand is expected to be the trend this year, Soper said.

The report also notes inquires are not necessarily leading to sales. Royal LePage surveyed recreational real estate market professionals across Canada, and found 52 per cent reported similar demand from buyers for recreational homes compared to the same time last year; 26 per cent said they're experiencing less demand.

Just over six-in-10 (61 per cent) found the average days on market has increased in their region compared to the year prior. Under half (48 per cent) reported similar inventory compared to last year, while 28 per cent reported less supply. 

The data shows it is taking longer to sell a recreational property and general demand is flat, Soper said. Recreational housing is also facing a supply shortage due to a slowing rate of new construction, he added, particularly for popular multifamily products such as condos and townhomes in resort or popular tourist areas.

The price of a recreational condo ticked up 2.1 per cent to $418,600 from 2024 to 2025. Condos are a popular type of recreational property investment, Soper said, but with condo builders and developers being “hyper-cautious” today, there is a shortage of supply which is pushing prices up.

There is also the influence of return-to-office mandates. The COVID pandemic allowed white collar professionals to work from a vacation home with an internet connection. But now many are being called back to their offices.

Over one-in-three (35 per cent) recreational property experts surveyed by Royal LePage said they noticed an increase in full-time residents moving back to urban centres during the past year.

Back-to-office is a small drag on the recreational market’s activity, Soper said, bumping up the sell side and increasing supply as people try to sell cottages, cabins and chalets which they are not able to use as often.

The 2026 forecast is a slower rate of growth compared to 2025, when the weighted median price of a single-family recreational home in Canada rose by 4.3 per cent from 2024 to $581,300.

Regional trends led by Prairies, Atlantic Canada

Royal LePage forecasts the strongest median price appreciation of a single-family recreational home in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (5.5 per cent), followed by Atlantic Canada (five per cent), Quebec (four per cent) and Alberta (2.5 per cent). Ontario (two per cent) and British Columbia (1.5 per cent) are expected to fare the worst.

The Prairies have performed comparatively well as they have resource-based economies, Soper explained, while Ontario and British Columbia have been hit harder by trade tensions with the U.S. Ontario and British Columbia have also suffered the most from the post-COVID pandemic real estate price correction, Soper said.

The economic slowdown in Ontario and British Columbia affected the market for waterfront properties, Soper said. The median price of a single-family waterfront property decreased 5.2 per cent to $717,600 from 2024 to 2025.

The strength of Quebec’s housing market is also reflected recreational properties, he continued. Affordability has been a key factor, with the median price of a recreational single-family home in Quebec at $465,700 in 2025, compared to over $630,000 in Ontario and over $1 million in British Columbia.

Similarly, Atlantic Canada is boosted by an affordable housing market, with the average median price of a recreational single-family home being $344,100 in 2025. The low price point attracts Americans looking for a “pastoral, quiet beautiful place to have a near-the-sea experience,” Soper said.