Recently released home sales statistics for Toronto and Vancouver suggest any glimmers of hope that the market was heading for a recovery are fading.

Morguard's senior director of research Keith Reading said a variety of factors continue to chill the overall housing market, including economic uncertainty, rising living costs and the perception there will be no improved interest rates on offer soon.

He predicts the fall market will be "choppy" at best.

"There's been another decline in activity in Greater Toronto Area, whether we like it or not," he said, referring to statistics released last week by Toronto Regional Real Estate Board which showed sales in August were down 1.3 per cent from July and 2.1 per cent against August 2025.

"That's the biggest market in the country," he said. "So, activity is decreased again year over year in August, and we've seen an increase in listings as well.

"I think that speaks to the stress that homeowners are feeling."

Trade war tensions

Buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines for a while are seeing few good reasons to jump in the market now and the escalation of the trade war with the United States has increased feelings of uneasiness, he added.

"I think that a lot of people are looking at what's going on the trade in the trade war, and they're thinking, 'Okay, are we going to go into a recession?'" Reading said.

"It's certainly impacting specific industries, but I think overall, it just makes people nervous, and it's true on the commercial real estate side too and in business in general.

"If you're not sure about where your business, or in the case of home buyers, you're not sure about your job . . . People get nervous, and the last thing people want to do when they get nervous is buy big ticket items."

Listings lingering longer in Vancouver

In Vancouver, new research from HouseSigma found homes for sale are staying on the market longer. Listings were on the market an average of 85 days as of the end of August, the real estate technology platform found, a rise from 75 days in August 2025 and 59 days in August 2024.

HouseSigma said it was the longest August time period since the platform started tracking the measure in 2020.

Metro Vancouver recorded 2,388 residential sales in August, down 11.5 per cent from July and 1.6 per cent from August 2025. 

The Markham-headquartered company also noted inventory contracted, with new listings at 5,610 in August, down 15 per cent from July and 6.6 per cent below August 2025.

"Close to 4,000 listings came off the market in August without selling, a quarter more than last August, which suggests many sellers are waiting rather than meeting the current market," HouseSigma said in its August market analysis.

Roman Silin, a leading HouseSigma agent in the Lower Mainland, said the fall market is expected to be quiet.

"Buyers are going to remain cautious in light of general instability across a broad spectrum of financial and geopolitical uncertainty, higher mortgage rates and questionable opportunity costs," he told RENX.

There continues to be demand for single-family homes around Vancouver, however.

"Well-priced detached homes in most markets seem to move quickly if priced aggressively, especially in high-demand areas with highly rated schools," he said.

Smaller markets expected to remain more stable

While Toronto and Vancouver are expected to continue to struggle, Reading predicts smaller cities will see more balanced market conditions.

"Alberta has performed relatively well, and part of that is because they've seen pretty healthy demand for oil," Reading said.

"The energy sector has performed really quite well, and it's not as expensive as say a Vancouver or a Toronto.

"So . . . Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa (are) sort of a little stronger than some of the other markets out there, and I think it's purely a a function of cost. There's there's definitely some disparity across the country, and again, it's related to the cost of living in in some of those regions."