As the final group of record-low fixed-rate mortgage holders heads into renewal season, a survey commissioned by Royal LePage has found that over a third (38 per cent) expect their payments to rise.

Borrowers who took out five-year, fixed-rate mortgages in 2021 benefitted from the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate sitting at just 0.25 per cent that year.

By the end of 2022, that rate had jumped to 4.25 per cent. While it has since been cut, renewal interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages remain in the four-per-cent range across many lenders.

Homeowners who still hold the ultra-low pandemic rates represent 12 per cent of all outstanding mortgages in Canada, Royal LePage said.

Phil Soper, Royal LePage president and CEO, said those heading in to renewals today are less anxious than their predecessors were this time last year, however, because they have seen the other cohorts navigate the rate changes successfully.

Banks were offering shorter-term mortgages

"During the pandemic, when rates were at historic lows, banks had significant incentives in place for people to take shorter term mortgages," he told RENX Homes. "Home prices were escalating, even though rates were low. Home prices were escalating rapidly during that period, and people were chasing homes, getting caught up in multiple offer bidding wars, and so banks made short-term mortgages — six months, a year, two years — very attractive and much, much cheaper.

"A lot of people took shorter-term mortgages at that time for the lowest payments possible. And, as a result, they've long since renewed," he added

Concerns have eased significantly since early 2025, the survey found, when a majority (57 per cent) of renewing mortgage holders expected their payments to rise.

The Royal LePage survey was conducted by public relations company Burson and over 1,100 Canadians with mortgages up for renewal were interviewed.

Nationwide, 31 per cent of respondents said they expect their mortgage payments to stay approximately the same after renewal, while 17 per cent expect their payment to decrease. 

Twelve per cent of respondents said they expected their monthly mortgage payments increase to be "significant," while one in four (26 per cent) are anticipating a "slight rise."

Despite fears of rising defaults as mortgage payments spiralled upwards, Canada continues to have the lowest default rate in the developed world at 0.24 per cent in Q4 2025, Soper said.

Economic sentiment is improving

Canadians are becoming more comfortable with the country's overall economic position than they were in 2025, he added, pointing to improved GDP numbers, wage and salary growth, and a new tolerance for the uncertainty surrounding Canada's trade relationship with the United States.

"(With the) White House continuously making threats, backing off, making threats, backing off, consumers here start to tune that out," he said. "The anxiousness that comes with economic uncertainty when a big country like the United States, its leader, is threatening our economic sovereignty, becomes less if they think it's just hot air. So, they've gotten used to it."

In Canada's two most expensive housing markets, however, homeowners report higher-than-average anxiety about their upcoming renewals. Forty-five per cent of respondents in Vancouver and 39 per cent in Toronto say they feel more anxious than they did at their previous renewal. 

“Anxiety around mortgage renewals tends to be greater in British Columbia because outstanding mortgage balances are often much larger," Adil Dinani, sales representative and team lead of the Dinani Group, said in the press release.

"The same increase in interest rates that adds a few hundred dollars to a monthly payment in other parts of the country can have a much greater impact in Metro Vancouver."

Mortgage-holders, however, are making adjustments and examining their options.

“(Most) homeowners are looking for ways to stay in their homes rather than sell to reduce their housing costs," she said.

"When payments put pressure on the household budget, many are exploring practical options, whether that is generating rental income, adjusting spending, or in some cases selling an investment property. People are adapting to changing conditions rather than making rushed decisions.”

Lenders are also responding to an upswing in mortgage activity, Soper said.

"The banking industry is recognizing that volumes are picking up across the country, even in the the higher priced, hardest hit areas like Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area," he said.

"As a result, there's competition for people's financing for their mortgages, and that's allowing people to renew at competitive rates."

Homeowners weighing their options as renewal approaches

"Although conflict in the Middle East has put upward pressure on bond yields in recent months, contributing to slightly higher fixed mortgage rates, borrowing costs have remained relatively stable overall," Royal LePage said in a press release on the survey

Despite this stability, many homeowners have yet to decide what type of mortgage or lender they will choose at renewal.

According to the survey, 70 per cent of mortgage holders currently have a fixed-rate mortgage, while 29 per cent have a variable-rate mortgage. At renewal, 43 per cent plan to choose a fixed rate, 16 per cent intend to select a variable rate, and 39 per cent say they will review their options before making a decision.

While nearly half of respondents (49 per cent) expect to remain with their current lender, 44 per cent plan to compare lenders before deciding.