Canadian home prices continued to fall in April, particularly in several of the country's largest markets, though a recovery may be imminent.

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, which monitors Canada’s 11 largest metropolitan areas, fell by 1.5 per cent from March to April, the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

Similarly, the MLS Home Price Index declined 1.2 per cent month-over-month in April. On a year-over-year basis, that index fell 3.6 per cent. The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $679,866 in April 2025, down 3.9 per cent from the year prior.

Robert Hogue, the assistant chief economist of Canadian housing for RBC, described the shift as a “price correction” concentrated on the country’s most expensive markets such as Toronto and Vancouver. However, potentially on the plus side, the full impact of the Canada-U.S. trade war on buyer sentiment may be nearing its peak.

“The U.S. administration’s decision to spare Canada from additional tariffs last month could boost confidence and attract buyers in coming months,” he predicted.

TD Bank marked down its 2025 annual average growth forecasts for Canadian home sales and prices. While it does not expect activity to be as weak as it was in Q1 for the rest of the year, the “elevated uncertainty and a deteriorating jobs market will yield subdued sales and price growth for much of 2025,” Rishi Sondhi, an economist with TD Bank, wrote.

Where the decreases (and increases) were concentrated

Of the 11 metropolitan areas in Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, nine saw decreases. The three heaviest slides were in Halifax (4.9 per cent), Hamilton (3.9 per cent) and Toronto (2.7 per cent). 

RBC’s analysis of the MLS Home Price Index in Toronto found the figure fell 6.2 per cent over the past five months. The condo market in the Greater Toronto Area remains particularly soft, Hogue and Sondhi both pointed out.

Toronto was not alone in declining. Every major Ontario market recorded month-over-month price declines, Hogue said, pointing to London (7.7 per cent), Kitchener-Waterloo (7.6 per cent), Niagara (6.9 per cent) and Hamilton (6.5 per cent).

In British Columbia, the Vancouver and the Fraser Valley markets both experienced 2.8 per cent composite price drops over the past four months.

The outlier remains Alberta, where prices rose in Edmonton (one per cent) and Calgary (0.8 per cent) according to the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index. Alberta’s two biggest cities have been among the hottest housing markets in Canada because people have been drawn to the relatively affordable housing.

On the other hand, the MLS Home Price Index recorded a month-over-month decrease for Edmonton and Calgary. But the declines were modest at 0.2 per cent and 0.6 per cent, respectively. Year-over-year, both cities have seen home prices appreciate, with Edmonton up by 11 per cent.

Montreal’s housing market rose by 0.7 per cent on the April MLS Home Price Index, and 8.2 per cent year-over-year. The city has “seen relative stability in resale activity with single-family home and condominium prices rising in April on a monthly and annual basis,” Hogue said. 

TD Bank’s forecast

Based on expectations for hiring to improve from reduced tariff-related uncertainty and lower interest rates, TD Bank expects pent-up demand for housing to be released in 2026, leading to an increase in home sales and average home prices.

But constrained affordability in key Ontario and B.C. markets will likely hamper such a recovery, Sondhi said.